Monday, October 01, 2012

The Frontstretch Newsletter: October 1st, 2012

THE FRONTSTRETCH NEWSLETTER
Presented by Frontstretch.com
The Best Seat at the Track, The Best View on the Net!
October 1st, 2012
Volume VI, Edition CLXCVII
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Sprint Cup Race Recap: Keselowski A Fuel Mileage King in Dover
by Jeff Wolfe

Brad Keselowski went from a goal of just trying to stay on the lead lap at a Sprint Cup track to being a top-5 contender, saving a little extra fuel down the stretch. That Sunoco paid off, leaving him the leader at the right time to win Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup race at what pundits claimed was one of his worst tracks coming in: Dover International Speedway.

Keselowski won his fifth race of the season, and for the second time in three races in NASCAR's Chase for the Championship, earning him a five-point lead over Jimmie Johnson atop the standings.  It was his ninth career win and first career victory at the "Monster Mile," an oval where he had never finished higher than 12th heading into Sunday's event. 

"Everybody said coming to Dover this was going to be our weakness," the driver said after emerging from his car Sunday. "I didn't believe it. We felt like we could come here to win."

Keselowski's mind may have been secure, but on-track it was a step-by-step process to push that No. 2 car to the front. Midway through the 400-lap race in front of 85,000 fans, Keselowski's first priority was just trying to stay on the lead lap.  A jack failure in the pits caused the No. 2 Dodge crew to have a long pit stop under green-flag conditions, costing them time at a track where cautions were at a premium.  While the team reacted quickly, once Keselowski got back up to speed, leader Kyle Busch was threatening to pass him.

"That's not something you see every day, I can tell you that," Keselowski said of the jack issue.  "Like I said, that's a mentality.  A lot of people can play that out as luck.  In a lot of ways, you make your own luck."

And that's what Keselowski did. He held on, remaining in front as one of the few drivers on the lead lap after a poorly timed caution early in the race had put all but the first six cars one lap down. While Busch remained comfortably out front, seemingly in control of the race that gave Keselowski a chance to remain in contention when so many others had fallen back.

"That run to me was one of the most important runs of the day," he added. "With the exception of obviously the last one because it showed we had a strong car, that in equal footing, equal track position, we could run just as fast if not faster than the lead group."

Then the next-to-last caution, for Matt Kenseth's broken truck arm with 90 laps to go, played in Keselowski's favor in what turned out to be a fuel mileage race. He went 89 laps on the his final tank to hold off second-place Jeff Gordon, who was also stretching his gas but able to run 100 percent along with third-place Mark Martin trailing behind.

"I felt like we were as good as anybody on mileage," said Keselowski's crew chief, Paul Wolfe.  "I felt like the guys we were racing, we would push them as hard as we could.  At the end of the day, we don't want to make any bad decisions, but we still came here to win a race.

"There's a part of me that at the end of that race I wasn't really thinking the championship as much as I was getting to Victory Lane, doing the things we've done all year to get us here.  That wins races, to not be scared to make some decisions that maybe some other teams wouldn't."

Keselowski, using that balance did endure a late scare from Gordon, winning by just over a second as the No. 24 closed in from well over ten seconds behind down the stretch. But those who had faster cars and better track position then Keselowski, like Busch, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson were left to ponder the consequences of what could have been. They had not one but two chances to top off on fuel; the repairs to Kenseth's car didn't take, causing a wreck and subsequent final caution on lap 318 but none of the cars up front decided to stop. And as the laps started to wind down without a yellow, it was apparent they were either going to have to slow down to save fuel or come in for a quick splash.

Busch and Hamlin each came in with ten and nine laps left, with Busch relinquishing the lead and Hamlin giving up second.  Meanwhile, Johnson was in such a fuel-saving mode that he was running under minimum speed, getting admonished by NASCAR and leaving the No. 48 car no match for the top-3 finishers.

"We're not very good at fuel mileage races," said Johnson, who wound up fourth after leading 43 laps. "So, when I heard that (crew chief Chad Knaus telling him to slow down and save), I'm like man, we're in big trouble. I wish we could have raced for it. We finally got control of the race, but it just didn't unfold like a normal race here."

Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Busch and Hamlin were even more frustrated.  Hamlin, who started on the pole, led the first 34 laps of the event although Busch followed up with a dominant performance, taking control for 302 of 400 circuits and remaining comfortably out front until the fuel tank forced a final stop.

"We played our best cards and we came up short," said Busch's crew chief Dave Rogers (his driver was unavailable for comment). "There was no doubt that we had the fastest car today."

But sometimes, the fastest car doesn't win the race and Keselowski smartly used a green-flag look to Dover's 400 miles to his advantage. Just five yellow flags, for 28 laps left the Sunoco strategy out there -- and he took it.

"I like the strategy we have, how we do it," said Keselowski, who drives the lone Dodge in the Chase and seems to get the best fuel mileage in the series.  "Certainly, we're executing it very well.  But, yeah, I mean, a lot of it is on the team.  It sounds great to give the credit to the driver.  But the engine and the strategy make it all work, as well."

The first caution of the day turned out to be bad luck for much of the field, including Chase contenders like Kevin Harvick. While Hamlin, and then Busch, were marching through the field and lapping slower cars, they had not pitted when the first caution came out on lap 70 for debris.  That left just six cars on the lead lap for the restart.  And even with the Lucky Dog rule, plus the wave-around rule which allows cars to choose not to pit to make up a lap, the race finished with just six cars on the lead lap.

"It's weird how that works sometimes," Keselowski said. "I think different tracks lend themselves to it.  I don't know if we got lucky.  I don't know how that all worked.  But it certainly changed the dynamics of the race.  Some guys ended up on the bad side, some guys ended up on the good side.  We were fortunate enough to end up on the good side.  That's good by me."

The rest of the top 10 following Keselowski, Gordon, Martin and Johnson were non-Chaser Carl Edwards in fifth, Martin Truex, Jr., then Busch and Hamlin followed by Clint Bowyer and non-Chaser Joey Logano.

The Sprint Cup Series could have the biggest wild-card race of the final ten races next Sunday at Talladega, a restrictor plate track where any driver can win and any driver can get caught in the so-called "Big One" that can change the complexion of the Chase.  ESPN will broadcast the race starting at 2 PM EST.

Jeff Wolfe is a Contributor for Frontstretch.com. He can be reached via email at jeff.wolfe@frontstretch.com.

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Chasing the Chase: Keselowski's Victory Helps Him Retake Points Lead
by Jeff Wolfe

Brad Keselowski is hoping that he can keep this momentum up.  The NASCAR Sprint Cup driver has won two of the first three races in the Chase for the Championship, taking the points lead with 30% of the 10-race format complete and is hoping more first-place finishes lie in his future.

Tony Stewart
won the first two races last year before coming to Dover and finishing 25th.  Stewart then went on to win three of the final four events to take his third Sprint Cup title through repeated trips to Victory Lane.

"Tony set a heck of a template last year of how to win the championship, winning five of the races," Keselowski said.  "By no means do I want to infer that's the way it's going to be this year, but he sent a heck of a message through the garage last year.  You look at his win at Loudon, similar thing, good car, good strategy.  They're clutch moments where the team has to come together - not a driver, a crew chief - a team, everybody has to be on their game.  That's why it's a championship team, not just a championship driver or championship car.  It's all of us together."

The result of that chemistry was a victory for Keselowski, who also won two weeks ago at Chicagoland, and a five-point lead over Johnson.

A late fuel stop cost Denny Hamlin in the Chase, ruining what was likely a top-three finish as he fell to eighth.  That put him in third place in the standings, 16 points behind Keselowski and wondering when luck will tilt his way on a consistent basis.

"It's so frustrating," he said. "It's like all the hard work that you do — it just doesn't pay off." 

Two other Chasers who fell back into the pack Sunday were Clint Bowyer and Stewart. Bowyer didn't have a disastrous day in finishing ninth, but he did lose ten points in the championship to fall 25 behind Keselowski.  The biggest loser in the Chase standings Sunday was clearly Smoke, though.  He came into the day just eight points out of the lead, but was never reached the top 10 at Dover and finished 20th, three laps off the pace.  He is now fifth in the Chase, 32 behind Keselowski, putting a big dent in his run at repeating last year's Chase magic.

"We just got caught behind the eight ball there," Stewart said. "We got a lap down and the next run we pitted, and we came back out and the No. 36 car crashes. It was just a domino effect. So, I don't know what we've got to do to change our luck, but that's just the story of the day for us."

Kasey Kahne's
Chase chances also took a hit.  He finished 15th and would have been a top-10 car if not for a loose lug nut causing him to come back into the pits late in the race.  That leaves him sixth in the standings, also 32 points out of the lead. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., after a quiet day (11th place) sits seventh, followed by Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick, whose competitive troubles continue after a 13th-place Sunday disappointment.

"Our car wasn't very good," he said bluntly, now nearly a full race's worth of points behind Keselowski after three events.

One driver who had a good day on the track, but lost points in the Chase was Jeff Gordon.  He finished second, following up his third last week.  But a 35th-place finish at Chicagoland put him in a hole and he even lost one point to Keselowski Sunday. That leaves him 48 behind, even though he did move up from 12th to tenth in the standings.

Two other drivers who had any hope of rebounding in the Chase also took big hits, both from the Roush Fenway Ford camp.  Greg Biffle finished 16th after coming back into the pits because of a loose wheel; that leaves him 11th in points, 51 behind the leader and looking at the title of "regular season point champion" as the only one he'll win in 2012.  Matt Kenseth had a rear suspension piece break on his car, causing him to finish 35th and putting him 12th in the Chase, 72 out of the lead.

The next race is Sunday at Talladega, where anything can and usually does happen. That may be the best chance for some of the Chase hopefuls to make up points.

Chase for the Championship Standings:  1)
Brad Keselowski 2,142 points, 2) Jimmie Johnson -5, 3) Denny Hamlin -16, 4) Clint Bowyer -25, t-5) Tony Stewart -32, t-5) Kasey Kahne -32, 7) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. -39, 8) Martin Truex Jr. -42, 9) Kevin Harvick -46, 10) Jeff Gordon -48, 11) Greg Biffle -51, 12) Matt Kenseth -72.

Best of the Rest:  13)
Kyle Busch 870, 14) Carl Edwards -34, 15) Ryan Newman -40, 16) Paul Menard -56, 17) Marcos Ambrose -72, 18) Joey Logano -85.

Race Winners:
Matt Kenseth (Daytona 500), Denny Hamlin (Phoenix, Kansas, Bristol 2, Atlanta, New Hampshire 2), Tony Stewart (Las Vegas, Fontana, Daytona 2), Brad Keselowski (Bristol, Talladega, Kentucky, Chicagoland 2, Dover 2), Ryan Newman (Martinsville), Greg Biffle (Texas, Michigan 2), Kyle Busch (Richmond), Jimmie Johnson (Darlington, Dover, Indianapolis), Kasey Kahne (Charlotte, New Hampshire), Joey Logano (Pocono 1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (Michigan 1), Clint Bowyer (Sonoma, Richmond 2), Jeff Gordon (Pocono 2), Marcos Ambrose (Watkins Glen).

Tracking The Top 35: The Gap Grows Again

The gap between the 35th and 36th place cars grew by ten points after Sunday's race at Dover, putting the gap between 35th and 36th place at 129 points.  The top-35 cars in owner points are guaranteed a starting spot in each week's race, and as has been the case since the first two months of the season, the margin remains a wide one.

The No. 36 car driven by Tony Raines finished 34th, but the car owned by Tommy Baldwin Racing still gained 10 points on the No. 21 car driven by Trevor Bayne, which did not run at Dover as the Wood Brothers team is on a partial schedule this season.

Here's your owner point standings around the all-important cutoff...

29) Germain Racing (No. 13 – Casey Mears), 259 points ahead of 36th.
30) Front Row Motorsports (No. 38 - David Gilliland), 258 points ahead of 36th.
31) Front Row Motorsports (No. 34 - David Ragan), 256 points ahead of 36th.
32) BK Racing (No. 83 - Landon Cassill), 228 points ahead of 36th.
33) Tommy Baldwin Racing / Stewart-Haas Racing (No. 10 – Danica Patrick), 188 points ahead of 36th.
34) FAS Lane Racing (No. 32 – T.J. Bell), 152 points ahead of 36th.
35) Tommy Baldwin Racing (No. 36 – J.J. Yeley), 129 points ahead of 36th.
36) Wood Brothers Racing (No. 21 - Trevor Bayne), 129 points behind 35th.
37) Circle Point, LLC (No. 33 – Cole Whitt), 132 points behind 35th.
38) Inception Motorsports (No. 30 – David Stremme), 162 points behind 35th.
39) Phil Parsons Racing (No. 98 – Michael McDowell), 210 points behind 35th.
40) Robinson-Blakeney Racing (No. 49 – Jason Leffler), 212 points behind 35th.
41) Front Row Motorsports (No. 26 - Josh Wise), 215 points behind 35th.

Jeff Wolfe is a Contributor for Frontstretch.com. He can be reached via email at jeff.wolfe@frontstretch.com.

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Secret Star of the Week: The Race You Never Saw

On Sunday, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. made his return to the Sprint Cup Series for his third career start as Roush Fenway Racing dusted off their No. 6 team for the first time since the Daytona 500.  In his previous starts, Stenhouse has acquitted himself well and Sunday was no exception. Stenhouse qualified in 17th, kept himself up the order all day and came home in 12th

"We made almost all the laps, I guess," he said of a run that kept him solidly inside the top-15 cars most of the day. "We stayed out there running and learned a lot. We didn't really ever get the car exactly where we wanted, but we were able to just log laps and keep trying things. I got more used to this car. I think if I came back to practice here I think I would practice a little different than what we did, but, all in all, we finished 12th and that's not terrible."

No, it's not, especially when teammates Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle, both Chase participants finished far behind him. That should give Stenhouse a fair bit of confidence going into his rookie season in the No. 17 next year.  - Phil Allaway

STAT OF THE WEEK: 6.  This represents the number of drivers who finished on the lead lap on Sunday.  That is the lowest number of cars to finish on the lead lap at Dover since the 2008 Best Buy 400 Benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks, when six finished on the lead lap as well.  Such a scenario used to be commonplace at Dover, especially when the races were still 500 miles in length and the track was still asphalt.  Today, with rules like the "Lucky Dog" and the wave-around being in play, such a low number is relatively rare. - Phil Allaway

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Quotes to Remember: AAA 400

"Well, it wasn't pretty at the beginning. It was pretty damn pretty at the end. What a crazy day. At the start of the race we were just terrible — I don't know what it was. Whether it was the first set of tires or what. And, we pitted and made a few changes and you know, of course, we got caught by the caution which got us two laps down. But, at that point right there the car was fast. It was fast all day after that. We just battled — battled hard. We passed a ton of cars. Obviously, we got a few at the end there cause of the fuel mileage deal. We came from dead last there with the 'lucky dog' the last run and I was catching the 99 (Carl Edwards) — he was on the lead lap all day. A little bit frustrated. But, all in all, we fought hard today. We showed what we were made of and battled. We were just off at the beginning of the race — that's all I can say." - Martin Truex, Jr., finished sixth

"
It's tough. It happened to us in 2005 right toward the end of the Chase though and it cost us the title, but I don't think that loose wheel today is gonna cost us the championship. We were off a little bit, but we were definitely a top-10 car, probably top-eight, especially with the way it ended up. We were in great position, so to finish where we did and have that happen is pretty remarkable, but that really kind of takes us out of the title hunt. We really needed to finish in the top three here to really be a factor, but now we'll just work on being in the top 10." - Greg Biffle, finished 16th

"When you go three laps down early it doesn't give you much hope for the remainder of the race. 
But we hung in there, stayed patient and pulled off a decent finish under difficult circumstances. Todd (Berrier, crew chief) and the guys did a great job in making the car better as the race went on. The car was at its best in the last green-flag run of the day." - Regan Smith, finished 17th

"I was a little bit slow to start. 
The car was pretty tight to get going. That is a pattern, for sure, but it is better off that I start out a little tight and comfortable and we free it up rather than the other way around. We worked our way through it. The last run was decent. We made it better most every stop. That is a good starting place for next year when we get here, and that is the point of these races." - Danica Patrick, finished 28th

"In two out of three Chase races something either fell off or broke, so obviously that's not good. Our performance hasn't been very good either, so I don't know. Today was a struggle. This is probably the worst we've run here for as long as I can remember. We just really missed it. From the first lap on the track to the last lap on the track we were pretty much junk. Everybody is trying hard, but we just missed it." - Matt Kenseth, finished 35th
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TODAY ON THE FRONTSTRETCH:

Thinkin' Out Loud: Dover-2 Race Recap
by Mike Neff

Pace Laps: Last Hurrahs for NASCAR Independents, Hoosiers, and Sam Hornish
by the Frontstretch Staff

NASCAR's Real "Monster" Lies In The David vs. Goliath Chase Battle Ahead
by Tom Bowles

Chasing Self-Destruction: Ford's Sprint Cup Title Hopes Fall Apart
by Tom Bowles

The Big Six: Questions Answered After the AAA 400
by Amy Henderson

Nationwide Series Breakdown: OneMain Financial 200
by Bryan Davis Keith

Tracking the Trucks: Smith's 350
by Beth Lunkenheimer
~~~~~~~~~~~
 
FRONTSTRETCH TRIVIA:
 
Q:
  Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the 2002 EA Sports 500 for his third consecutive win at Talladega in a caution-free race.  However, the fact that the race went caution free didn't necessarily stop a very strange incident from occurring during the pace laps.  What happened?

Check back Tuesday for the answer, here in the Frontstretch Newsletter!
 
Friday's Answer:
 
Q:  Ryan Newman won the 2003 MBNA America 400 for his seventh win of the year while leading 106 laps. However, it wasn't easy by any means (then again, Dover never really is easy).  What did Newman have to overcome in order to win?

A: Newman had to overcome an unscheduled pit stop under green on Lap 46 for four tires to win.  He was leading at the time when his car suddenly got extremely loose.  After pitting, Newman was nearly two laps down, but used cautions to get himself back up in the hunt.  The unscheduled stop can be seen at the 51:15 mark of the telecast.

Frontstretch Trivia Guarantee: Take the shirt off our backs! If we've provided an incorrect answer to the Frontstretch Trivia question, be the first to email the corrected trivia answer to trivia@frontstretch.com and we'll send you a Frontstretch T-Shirt ... FREE!

Coming Tuesday in the Frontstretch Newsletter:
-- Top News by Tom Bowles
-- Fan's View Commentary by S.D. Grady
-- Numbers Game: AAA 400 by Garrett Horton
-- Links to your favorite Frontstretch articles, and more!
 
Tomorrow on the Frontstretch:

Who's Hot / Who's Not in Sprint Cup by StarCoach Race Tours: Dover / Talladega Edition by Brett Poirier
The Chase is here, and Brett takes a look at which drivers are in position to take the field by storm... and which ones are already taking a look ahead towards 2013.

Five Points To Ponder by Danny Peters
Danny has his weekly edition of talking points to wrap up Dover and get us ready for Talladega.

Couch Potato Tuesday by Phil Allaway
This past weekend, the Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series were both in action at Dover International Speedway.  Meanwhile, the Camping World Truck Series was way out at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.  Were the telecasts of these events "up to snuff?"  Find out in this week's TV Critique.

Tech Talk by Mike Neff
This year, we have an interesting new weekly feature for our readers where we'll have a special guest stop by on a weekly basis to discuss the technical aspects of the sport.

The Yellow Stripe by Bryan Keith
Bryan is back with another commentary to make you think.
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